Tonight (and into tomorrow) is a very busy night...

Here are the poll closing times re: the primaries of 7 March 7 PM EST (4 PM PST, 0000 UCT): Georgia, Vermont [GA will be an early test of Bush's strength- as it is the only primary of the evening in Bush's strong Southern bailiwick; VT, meanwhile, will be an early indicator of how McCain will do in the rest of New England (and, hence, among Republican moderates he would need to pick up a fair share of the delegates up for grabs today)].

7:30 PM EST (4:30 PM PST, 0030 UCT): Ohio [a BIGGIE: McCain basically has to win this one (a-la Michigan)... if he doesn't, the rest of the night pretty much won't matter... latest polls show him trailing... doesn't look good for him].

8 PM EST (5 PM PST, 0100 UCT): Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri [CT, ME and MA will be clear signs as to whether or not the more moderate Republicans are still in McCain's corner... if he loses all three of these (especially if he loses MA!), he might as well fold up his tent right then and there, because it will bode ill re: the result from New York].

9 PM EST (6 PM PST, 0200 UCT): New York, Rhode Island [like its earlier New England sisters, RI will be a clear indicator of who Republican moderates have decided to fall in behind: McCain or Bush (i.e., go with principle or go with the apparent winner: the "bandwagon effect" will be on full display by now if Bush- and not McCain- has swept New England)... New York, however, is the big prize: a loss in NY by McCain coming on top of an earlier loss in Ohio means "turn out the lights, the party's over!"... California will then no longer much matter... Bush and McCain are neck-and-neck in NY according to the latest polls].

11 PM EST (8 PM PST, 0400 UCT): California [this will only really mean anything to McCain if he has already won Ohio (highly unlikely) and then NY (still quite possible)... and we all know that CA's "not-really-open primary" is, more or less, rigged against McCain... assuming, say, a McCain loss in OH but a win in NY, McCain could pull a "moral indignation" approach IF he wins the votes of ALL the voters in CA's GOP primary but loses to Bush among the GOP-onlys which will determine delegate selection (i.e. McCain might stay in the race hoping that a "backlash" against Bush coming out of such a scenario might translate into some voter movement away from Bush in the primaries out West on 10 March [the Southern primaries on 14 March are decidedly unfriendly to McCain]... but this would then make CA truly McCain's last stand: first of all, he has to have already won either OH or NY (if not both) and secondly, he has to have won the overall (as opposed to the GOP-only) vote in CA- failing either of these two conditions, McCain's quixotic bid for the Presidency (as I called it in one of my earlier Commentaries) is OVER (assuming he then makes nice with Bush and does NOT pull a "John B. Anderson in 1980" and seek a third-party presidential bid).