[First posted 04oct20, last update 04oct20]
|
This is a mathematical model of the Relative Strength of the two Major Parties in each of the 50 States going into the 2004 General Election, based on how each State has voted for President, Governor, its two United States Senators, its Congressional delegation and its legislature. The scoring system re: each State is as follows: 20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for President in the most recent election for that office (at the present time, this would be the 2000 Presidential Election, of course). 20 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won a plurality of the State vote for Governor in the most recent election for that office (by the way, this would include a Recall Election, such as the one last year in California). 15 points for the Major Party the candidate of which has won the most recent election to each of the State's two U.S. Senate seats (key word: election; a temporary appointment to fill a Senate vacancy where someone from a different Party takes the seat doesn't at all change a Party affiliation based upon the most recent election to a given seat- however, Special Elections to a U.S. Senate seat do count in the scoring). 10 points for each of the following: the State's delegation to the U.S.House of Representatives, the Upper House of the State's legislature, the Lower House of the State's legislature-- each 10 point "bloc" is divided among the Major Parties based on the percentage of seats each Party holds in the chamber in question divided by 10 and rounded up or down to the nearest whole integer. Total: 100 points (except that it is possible, due to rounding re: the three 10 point "blocs", to occasionally have points totalling one or more than 100). Normally, Independents and Third Parties count no points. Note: The 100-point scoring system- that, re: a State's delegation in the US House and each house of the State's legislature, only GENERAL Elections count (Special Elections to any of said legislative chambers do NOT count here). These point values, will in most cases, be altered by the results of the 2 November 2004 General Election. The several States are arranged below by total points for the Major Party with the most points of the two Major Parties in each State and classified accordingly, from left to right on the political spectrum:
Special cases: |