The Green Papers - 2006 Midterm Election
Contests to Watch and Polling Data

36 Governor's chairs, 33 Senate seats, and 435 House Seats are up for election in 2006. During this primary season 4 incumbents lost their bids for renomination:

• 1 incumbent Senator lost his bid for renomination.
• Democratic Senator Joseph I. "Joe" Lieberman (Connecticut, Class 1) lost his bid for renomination. However, he is running in the Midterm Election as an Independent.
• 1 incumbent Governor lost his bid for renomination.
• Republican Governor Frank H. Murkowski (Alaska)
• 2 incumbent Congressmen lost their bids for renomination.
• Democratic Congressman Cynthia McKinney (Georgia CD 4)
• Republican Congressman John H.J. "Joe" Schwarz (Michigan CD 7)

Outlook for the U.S. Senate in the 7 November 2006 Election (updated 6 November 2006):

• for the Democrats: 27 Senate seats are not up for election in 2006.
• for the Republicans: 40 Senate seats are not up for election in 2006.

Of the 33 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2006:

• for the Democrats: 11 Senate seats are certain or reasonably certain.
• for the Republicans: 7 Senate seats are certain or reasonably certain.
• for the Independent: 1 Senate seat is certain or reasonably certain.

This gives the Democrats 38, the Republicans 47, and 1 Independent. 14 U.S. Senate seats are left in SOME kind of "play"...

Of these 14 "in play", 8 lean Democratic and 1 leans Republican... neither Party, thus, has control of the Senate going by this total of 46 Democratic to 48 Republican "not up for election / certain / likely" seats alone...

This leaves 5 Senate seats with toss-ups that can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing and split these 5 between the Parties, you actually end up with a quite possible result of the elections re: the U.S. Senate of 48 or 49 Democrats, 50 or 51 Republicans and 1 Independent...

All of which means that, should these numbers hold, the Republicans will barely retain control of the the Senate as a result of this year's 2006 Midterm Election.

Changes from 1 November to 6 November: None. However, some polls are showing that the toss-up seats in New Jersey and Virgina appear to be moving toward the Democratic candidates while the toss-up seat in Tennessee appears to be moving toward the Republican candidate. This movement is insufficient to change the predictions from toss-up.

Changes from 23 October to 1 November: None. However, the toss-up seats in New Jersey and Rhode Island appear to be moving towards the Democratic candidates while the toss-up seats in Tennessee and Virginia appear to be moving towards the Republican candidates. This movement is insufficient to change the predictions from toss-up.

Outlook for the House of Representatives in the 7 November 2006 Election (updated 6 November 2006):

• for the Democrats: 188 House seats certain or reasonably certain.
• for the Republicans: 168 House seats certain or reasonably certain.

Leaving 79 U.S. House seats in at least SOME kind of "play"...

Of these 79 "in play", 25 lean Democratic (giving the Democrats 213) while 32 lean Republican (giving the GOP side of the House aisle 200).

This leaves only 22 toss-ups that they can go either way (and, if you then- if only for the sake of the argument- do that ol' coin flip-as-chance thing you actually end up with a quite possible result of the elections re: the U.S. House of 224 Democrats and 211 Republicans with 218 needed for a majority.

All of which means that, should these numbers hold, the Democrats will take control of the House in this year's 2006 Midterm Election.

Changes from 1 November to 6 November: 3-4 seats have moved to the Democratic column. On 1 November the synopsis showed 220 or 221 Democrats to 214 or 215 Republicans. The 6 November numbers indicate 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans.

Overview

• 188 Democratic.
• 21 Lean Democratic to 25 Lean Democratic.
• 23 Tossup to 22 Tossup.
• 35 Lean Republican to 32 Lean Republican.
• 168 Republican.

Changes from 23 October to 1 November: Many contests appear to be tightening. On 23 October the synopsis showed 214 Republicans to 221 Democrats. The 1 November numbers show 214 or 215 Republicans to 220 or 221 Democrats. Most of the movement has been from Republican to Leaning Republican.

Overview

• 191 Democratic to 188 Democratic.
• 19 Lean Democratic to 21 Lean Democratic.
• 22 Tossup to 23 Tossup.
• 22 Lean Republican to 35 Lean Republican.
• 181 Republican to 168 Republican.

Gubernatorial changes from 1 November to 6 November:

• from Tossup to Leans Democratic: CO

Gubernatorial changes from 23 October to 1 November:

• from Democratic to Leans Democratic: OK, PA
• from Tossup to Leans Republican: NV
• from Republican to Lean Republican: CA, GA, VT

Below is a state by state digest of offices up for election 2006 Midterm Election.

• Offices marked **WATCH** have close, interesting, or contradictory information being reported by the pollsters.
• Offices marked **NO INCUMBENT** have no incumbent running in the upcoming election.
• Offices without a designation are likely to be won by the named candidate.

Key:

• D: Democrat
• LD: Leans Democrat
• T: Toss-up
• LR: Leans Republican
• R: Republican
• I: Independent
• N: Nonpartisan

By the way, the only poll that matters is the one on 7 November 2006!

Information to build this list was obtained from the following sites (shown in alphabetical order by URL). Updated 6 November 2006.

• Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Predictions as of 6 November 2006-- Senate: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans; House: 232 Democrats, 203 Republicans; Governors: 29 Democrats, 21 Republicans.
• The Cook Political Report
• Congressional Quarterly
• D.C.'s Political Report
• http://www.electoral-vote.com. Predictions as of 5 November 2006-- Senate: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans; House: 239 Democrats, 196 Republicans.
• The Gallup Organization
• National Journal - Chuck Todd's Campaign Race Rankings
• New York Times 2006 Election Guide. Predictions as of 2 November 2006-- Senate: 40 Safe Democrat, 8 Leaning Democrat, 3 toss up, 2 Leaning Republican, 47 Republican; House: 196 Safe Democrat, 19 Leaning Democrat, 17 toss up, 26 Leaning Republican, 177 Republican; Governors: 15 Safe Democrat, 12 Leaning Democrat, 4 toss up, 6 Leaning Republican, 13 Republican.
• National Public Radio - Political Junkie - by Ken Rudin
• POLITICS1.com. Predictions as of 6 November 2006-- Senate: Democrats +6; House: Democrats +32; Governors: Democrats +8.
• Rasmussen Reports Election 2006. Predictions as of 4 November 2006-- Senate: 45 Democrats, 4 Lean Democrats, 2 toss-ups, 1 Lean Republican, 48 Republicans.
• Real Clear Politics
• Roll Call Election Map. Predictions as of 2 November 2006:-- Senate: 7 Safe Republican, 1 Likely Republican, 0 Leans Republican, 5 Tossup, 6 Leans Democratic, 2 Likely Democratic, 10 Safe Democratic, 1 Leans Independent, 1 Safe Independent; House: 161 Safe Republican, 25 Likely Republican, 11 Leans Republican, 27 Tossup, 14 Leans Democratic, 7 Likely Democratic, 190 Safe Democratic.
• The Rothenberg Political Report
• Zogby International